By (Reuters) – Major brokerages including J.P.Morgan, Barclays (LON:BARC) and Goldman Sachs retained their view of a 25-basis-point (bp) interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, after the central bank cut at a similar rate at its Nov. 6-7 meeting.
The Fed’s policymakers have begun taking stock of what could become a more complex economic landscape when President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would estimate the impact on its twin goals of stable inflation and maximum employment as the new administration’s proposals take shape.
Citigroup (NYSE:C) stuck to its view of a cut of 50 bps in December, while all major brokerages continue to see a 25-bps cut.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the November policy meeting:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA Global 25 125 3.0%-3.25% (end
Research 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 – –
Citigroup 50 – –
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 25 – 3.375% (Q4 2025)
*UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the November policy meeting:
Rate-cut estimates
(in bps)
Brokerages 2024
Nov Dec
BofA Global 25 25
Research
Deutsche Bank 25 25
Barclays 25 25
Macquarie 25 25
Goldman Sachs 25 25
J.P.Morgan 25 25
*UBS Global Wealth 50
Management
Citigroup 25 50