By (Reuters) – Major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting that starts on Tuesday, even as financial markets price in a good chance of policymakers starting the easing cycle with an outsized rate reduction.
Interest rate futures show a 65% chance of the Fed reducing rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, compared with 35% odds of a 25 bps cut, according to data on the CME’s FedWatch tool.
Last week, a Reuters poll found that a majority of 101 economists expected the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at the meeting, while only nine expected a half-percentage-point cut at the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Here are the latest forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the Fed’s decision due on Wednesday:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Sept Nov Dec
Goldman Sachs 25 25 25
BofA Global Research 25 25 25
UBS Global Wealth 50 25 25
Management
J.P.Morgan 50 50 25
Wells Fargo 50 50 25
Nomura 25 25 25
Deutsche Bank 25 25 25
Morgan Stanley 25 25 25
Citigroup 25 50 50
Wells Fargo 50 25 25
Investment Institute
Barclays 25 25 25
UBS Global Research 25 25 25
HSBC 25 25 25
Macquarie 25 25 25
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank