By By Kitiphong Thaichareon
BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s central bank chief and finance minister will meet in early September to open negotiations on an inflation target for 2025, a senior official said, as the government seeks a new goal with an eye on a rate cut that it has pushed for months.
The government has been locked in a tussle with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) since last year, repeatedly asking the central bank to cut key interest rates to help revive a flagging economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was elected prime minister earlier this month, in May even described the central bank’s independence as an “obstacle” to resolving economic problems.
A review of the 1-3% inflation target range, which has been in place since 2020, could raise the chance of a rate cut, her predecessor Srettha Thavisin, who was dismissed from office by a court order, said in June.
At the upcoming meeting, the central bank would propose a target approved by its monetary policy committee (MPC), BOT assistant governor Piti Disyatat said.
“We have to wait for the meeting to see whether they are differences of opinion,” Piti told Reuters, declining to disclose the MPC’s target.
“We expect a mutual agreement to be reached.”
A scheduled first meeting for discussions between the BOT and finance ministry on the inflation target has not been previously reported.
Despite government calls for an easing, the central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a more than decade-high of 2.50%. The next rate review is due on Oct. 16.
The finance ministry said it was preparing data ahead of the September meeting, the exact date for which would be fixed after Paetongtarn confirms her cabinet, including the finance minister.
“We won’t set our goal in advance but will wait to see what they will propose,” said Pornchai Thiraveja, head of the ministry’s fiscal policy office.
“We must set a target that is appropriate.”
OPEN LETTER
Thailand’s inflation target is reviewed every year and must be agreed by the BOT and finance ministry, and approved by the cabinet before the end of the year.
The BOT has said the current target range is functioning well, although headline inflation averaged just 0.11% in January-July.
The central bank has not met the current inflation target range since it was set.
Last month, Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said changing the target would put at risk credibility, inflation expectations and borrowing costs.
The central bank was preparing an open letter to the finance minister to explain why inflation was outside the target, in line with existing protocols, Piti said.
In its last such letter in February, the BOT said headline inflation had remained low in large part because of government energy subsidies that lowered electricity costs and retail oil prices.
“Without such aforementioned subsidy measures, average headline inflation over the previous 12 months would have resided within the monetary target range at 1.6 percent,” the letter said.
Thailand’s economic growth picked up to 2.3% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, but analysts said fiscal policy uncertainty clouded the outlook.
The BOT has predicted 2.6% growth for 2024, after last year’s 1.9%.