By (Reuters) -J.P.Morgan and BofA Global Research have joined a growing rank of major brokerages that expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in November.
BofA and J.P.Morgan have reduced their estimate to 25 bps from 50 bps after the blowout U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday pointed to a resilient economy.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank reiterated their forecasts of a 25 bps cut each in November and December.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the jobs report:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
2024
Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA Global Research 25 25 125 3.0%-3.25% (end
2025)
Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%
Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 25 150 3.0% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%
Management
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the jobs data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
2024
Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at
end of 2025
BofA Global Research 50 25 125
UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%
Management
Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%
Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%
Morgan Stanley 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Citigroup 50 25
J.P.Morgan 50 25
HSBC 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group